Turkey in Tug of War between Russia and US

September 12, 2008 – 10:33 am

Report from EurasiaNet.org concerning the recent conflict between Georgia and Russia as it relates to Turkey:

The simmering crisis brought about by Russia’s recent incursion into Georgia is putting Turkey on the spot, presenting Ankara with an undesirable choice between backing its traditional western allies and preserving its growing trade relations with Russia.

“Turkey is torn between the latest developments, not only between Russia and Georgia but mainly between Russia and the United States and NATO as well. Even if we do not go back to the Cold War, at the point that we have arrived to today, Turkey cannot manage this crisis with ‘platonic moves,’” said a recent commentary published by the English-language Turkish Daily News.

During the Cold War, Turkey — a member of NATO and a long-time ally of Washington — found itself on the frontlines of containing the Soviet Union. Even during the Ottoman period, Russia — which invaded Eastern Anatolia at the start of World War I — was viewed as a dangerous regional competitor.

The Turkish-Russian relationship has changed dramatically in recent years, though. Today, Russia is Turkey’s largest trading partner, with trade between the two countries expected to reach $38 billion this year, up from $27 billion the year before. Russia also supplies close to half of Turkey’s crude oil and 65 percent of its natural gas, used both to heat Turkish home and to run many of the country’s power plants. [For background see the Eurasia Insight archive].

But following the invasion of Georgia, Turkey is suddenly facing the prospect of a resurgent Russian presence near its border. “There is a dilemma which Turkey faces,” says Ihsan Dagi, a professor of international relations at Ankara’s Middle East Technical University. “Georgia is indispensable to Turkey’s overall Caucasian and Central Asian strategy, and is central to its claim to being an energy corridor.”

On the other hand, he says, “Russia is mostly indispensable for the Turkish economy. What is at stake is Turkey’s economic stability.”

Read the entire article.

The resolution to this tension will greatly affect gospel ministry in all of the discussed countries: Turkey, Russia, Georgia and the rest of the region.